EU referendum is causing short-term uncertainty in the property market


14/06/2016

Brexit and the UK property market.jpg
  • New buyer demand down 5% on the month across the UK and 6% in London.
  • UK house price growth slowed in May – prices rose just 0.8% on the month, down from the 1% increase reported in April
  • London house prices have declined 0.2% on the month and are up just 5.1% on the year, compared to the 7% annual growth reported the previous month
  • Agreed transactions fell 3.9% on the month in the UK and 7.4% in London. 

UK average house prices for June

 

Paul Smith, CEO of haart, the UK’s largest independent estate agent comments:

“The upcoming EU referendum is causing high levels of short-term uncertainty in the property market, making both buyers and sellers nervous, resulting in a fall in activity. New buyer demand for example, declined 5% on the month in May across the UK and 6% in London. This is in turn leading to a slowdown in house price growth. London has been impacted most by the fall in investment activity with new buyer demand down 5.6% on the month, resulting in a 0.2% fall in house prices on the month in May.

“Whether we remain in the EU or not, the UK, particularly London will not falter as a safe haven for investment. It is the uncertainty around our status in the EU that is causing the market to stagnate, once we know the outcome, regardless of what it is, the property market will become reinvigorated. In the long term, house prices will bounce back once more as the age-old problem of a disparity between the amount of stock available and the number of buyers competing, rears its head.”

 

National trends

House prices in May rose just 0.8% on the month, driving down annual house price growth to 11.1% on the year, a slowdown on the previous month. The average UK house price now sits at £235,037.

first time buyers vs all buyers

The number of new buyers entering the market fell 5.3% on the month and 8.9% annually across the UK. Meanwhile, the supply of properties coming onto the market is down 1.7% both on the month and on the year. With a sharper decline in buyer demand than in stock levels, competition for homes has fallen marginally, however, there are still 10 buyers chasing every property to come onto the market in the UK. 

National property buyer analysis

Sales continued to fall in May, down 3.9% on the previous month. At the same time, buyer viewings declined 1.8% on the month and 6.7% annually

First-time buyer house prices fell 0.4% on the month in May to an average of £175,375. The pressure on starter homes has been relieved by a declining level of demand - the number of new first-time buyers entering the market fell 4.9% in the last month alone and declined 4.2% on the year. 

First-time buyer market activity analysis

While the average price for a first-time buyer home has decreased, the average deposit has in fact risen, up by 1.8% on the month and 10.7% on the year. This has brought the average loan-to-value down by 0.6% both on month and annually. 

 

London property market

The average property price in London has declined 0.2% on the month and has increased just 5.1% on the year. This compares to annual house price growth of 9.8% in April. West London has seen the biggest spike in house prices in the last year, up 18.2%. 

London buyer activity analysis

Demand for properties in London has taken a sharp fall, down 5.6% on the month and 11.9% on the year. The number of properties for sale has fallen 2.7% on the month but has risen 2% annually. Sales transactions are down 7.4% on the month but have increased 4.5% on the year. 

London first-time buyers market

 

Registrations per property for sale in London